Survey USA's track record in Pennsylvania's recent elections is excellent. Last year, their pre-election surveys accurately projected the outcomes of both the Philadelphia mayoral election and the Allegheny County Executive's race. In April, Survey USA was the only poll to show Arlen Specter in a statistical dead heat with his GOP primary opponent, Congressman Pat Toomey and, on Election Day, Specter received 50.6% to Toomey's 49.4%.

The trend is clear:  Pennsylvanians are rejecting Specter's 89% support for the failed Bush-Cheney agenda. On the economy, health care, Iraq and more, Specter and Bush's approach isn't working for Pennsylvania, and it's not working for America.

Highlights of the new Survey USA Poll:

Specter's Lead Cut By More than Half to Single Digits in Head-to-Head test.  Six months after spending some $15 million to beat Pat Toomey by only 1.2% in the Republican Primary, 24-year incumbent Arlen Specter hasn't moved an inch. In fact, Specter's lead has been cut in half, and he's fallen from 54% to under 50% - "the danger zone" for incumbents.  Today's poll shows a 12-point swing with Specter at only 48% - down six from 54% - among likely voters, while Hoeffel has climbed six points from 35% to 41%.

BOTTOM LINE: The race for the U.S. Senate continues to tighten in Joe Hoeffel's favor.

This movement is not surprising, considering Hoeffel's rising name recognition throughout Pennsylvania. Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer is making an impact in the race as well, as Arlen Specter is still not winning over many of the Toomey voters that he has courted all year by touting his 89% voting record with President Bush.

Last week, the Allentown Morning Call reported that Specter "remains concerned about Hoeffel and Jim Clymer, the Constitution Party candidate who has dubbed himself `the only conservative' in the race.

"He said his pollsters have told him that his margin over Hoeffel will narrow and that Clymer could get double-digit percentage support in November, risking his chances for a fifth term." (Allentown Morning Call, 10/13/2004; http://www.mcall.com/news/elections/all-a5_5toomey1oct13,1,4387716.story)

A quick look back at Pennsylvania history shows a familiar pattern:  Little-known challengers - like Harris Wofford in 1991, Rick Santorum in 1994 and even Pat Toomey this past spring - have closed the gap against better-known opponents at a similar rate once the television campaign begins.  Ron Klink, who finished with 46% of the vote against Rick Santorum in 2000, was polling at 35% with less than a week to go in the election.

The gap between Hoeffel and Specter is closing fast. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently announced that they were making a major investment in Pennsylvania and in Joe Hoeffel. Hoeffel has recently campaigned with Presidential nominee John Kerry, Vice-Presidential nominee John Edwards, Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman, former U.S. Senator Max Cleland, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. This week, Hoeffel will campaign with Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. and General Wesley Clark, as well as with Kerry and Edwards.

Pennsylvania voters are beginning to respond to Joe Hoeffel's determination to change the course in Washington and they are rejecting Arlen Specter's campaign and his defense of a failed Bush-Cheney agenda that is hurting Pennsylvania families and communities.